Read Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției by Philip E. Tetlock Free Online


Ebook Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției by Philip E. Tetlock read! Book Title: Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției
The author of the book: Philip E. Tetlock
Edition: Litera
Date of issue: June 24th 2016
ISBN: No data
ISBN 13: No data
Language: English
Format files: PDF
The size of the: 436 KB
City - Country: No data
Loaded: 2665 times
Reader ratings: 6.4

Read full description of the books:



From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
 
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.


Download Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției PDF Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției PDF
Download Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției ERUB Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției PDF
Download Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției DOC Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției PDF
Download Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției TXT Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției PDF



Read information about the author

Ebook Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției read Online!


Reviews of the Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției


LOUIE

Phone number you need to drive to protect against robots.

HARRY

The book caused contradictory feelings!

HOLLY

Interesting look on the other side

HARRISON

This book will make you shudder, infiltrate, and change your mind about this crazy world.

LILY

One of the best books




Add a comment




Download EBOOK Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției by Philip E. Tetlock Online free

PDF: superprognoze-arta-i-tiina-prediciei.pdf Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției PDF
ERUB: superprognoze-arta-i-tiina-prediciei.epub Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției ERUB
DOC: superprognoze-arta-i-tiina-prediciei.doc Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției DOC
TXT: superprognoze-arta-i-tiina-prediciei.txt Superprognoze. Arta și știința predicției TXT